The GPT-9 Test
Will GPT-9 kill your company?
Most founders avoid this question because the answer is uncomfortable: What happens to your business when GPT-9 ships?
Not GPT-5. Not next year’s model. The one that’s genuinely better than humans at most cognitive tasks. The one that makes today’s AI look like science fiction.
Run the exercise honestly. Assume capabilities that feel like science fiction today will be table stakes within three to four years. Now stress-test your business:
Does your business depend on AI being bad at something it’s rapidly getting better at?
Do you have actual network effects, where the product or service improves as more people use it?
Does your business require physical presence, regulatory complexity, or human trust that can’t be automated away?
If AI becomes 99% cheaper and 100x faster, would a customer still choose you?
Does better AI make your product more valuable, or less?
The uncomfortable truth is that many businesses that feel defensible today are actually just arbitraging a temporary capability gap. The founders who internalize this now have time to build something that lasts.
